1. How much progress has been made relative to expectations and how does this affect which timelines are most likely?
Since the launch of GPT-4, the next relevant data point will be GPT-5. All the rest is ~noise.
From yesterday's announcement, the most interesting thing is that they are making their newest model free (many people will cancel their paid subscriptions). This seems to indicate that they will launch GPT-5 soon, which will be available only for the paid tier.
A bit about me in case someone wants to connect 👋👋
I’m a SWE with 5 yoe working in early-stage startups. I’m quite ambitious about EA and I’m currently applying to Charity Entrepreneurship.
Some things I like: sports, concerts, startups, Twitter, Dwarkesh (huge fan), Derek Guy, walkable and cyclable cities, pedestrian streets, lentil dahl.
Joey has answered this before elsewhere
I haven't been able to find it. Do you remember where you read it?
cc: @Joey
Also, donating will help with persuading people to be more altruistic in general. In psychology you have this concept of a costly signal, which causes people to take your (related) ideas much more seriously.
Are you confident about this?
Donating an organ might seem quite extreme, possibly making the average person view you as 'very weird,' which could have the opposite effect.
The meat-eater problem is under-discussed.
I've spent more than 500 hours consuming EA content and I had never encountered the meat-eater problem until today.
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/meat-eater-problem
(I had sometimes thought about the problem, but I didn't even know it had a name)
This raises the concern of whether 80,000 Hours should still recommend people to join OpenAI.