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Next month, two EAGx events are happening in new locations: Austin and Copenhagen! Applications for these events are closing soon: * Apply to EAGxAustin by this Sunday, March 31 * Apply to EAGxNordics by April 7 These conferences are primarily for people who are at least familiar with the core ideas of effective altruism and are interested in learning more about what to do with these ideas. We're particularly excited to welcome people working professionally in the EA space to connect with others nearby and provide mentorship to those new to the space. If you want to attend but are unsure about whether to apply, please err on the side of applying! If you've applied to attend an EA Global or EAGx event before, you can use the same application for either event.
(This is a draft I wrote in December 2021. I didn't finish+publish it then, in part because I was nervous it could be too spicy. At this point, with the discussion post-chatGPT, it seems far more boring, and someone recommended I post it somewhere.) Thoughts on the OpenAI Strategy OpenAI has one of the most audacious plans out there and I'm surprised at how little attention it's gotten. First, they say flat out that they're going for AGI. Then, when they raised money in 2019, they had a clause that says investors will be capped at getting 100x of their returns back. > "Economic returns for investors and employees are capped... Any excess returns go to OpenAI Nonprofit... Returns for our first round of investors are capped at 100x their investment (commensurate with the risks in front of us), and we expect this multiple to be lower for future rounds as we make further progress."[1] On Hacker News, one of their employees says, > "We believe that if we do create AGI, we'll create orders of magnitude more value than any existing company." [2] You can read more about this mission on the charter: > "We commit to use any influence we obtain over AGI’s deployment to ensure it is used for the benefit of all, and to avoid enabling uses of AI or AGI that harm humanity or unduly concentrate power. > > Our primary fiduciary duty is to humanity. We anticipate needing to marshal substantial resources to fulfill our mission, but will always diligently act to minimize conflicts of interest among our employees and stakeholders that could compromise broad benefit."[3] This is my [incredibly rough and speculative, based on the above posts] impression of the plan they are proposing: 1. Make AGI 2. Turn AGI into huge profits 3. Give 100x returns to investors 4. Dominate much (most?) of the economy, have all profits go to the OpenAI Nonprofit 5. Use AGI for "the benefit of all"? I'm really curious what step 5 is supposed to look like exactly. I’m also very curious, of course, what they expect step 4 to look like. Keep in mind that making AGI is a really big deal. If you're the one company that has an AGI, and if you have a significant lead over anyone else that does, the world is sort of your oyster.[4] If you have a massive lead, you could outwit legal systems, governments, militaries. I imagine that the 100x return cap means that the excess earnings would go to the hands of the nonprofit; which essentially means Sam Altman, senior leadership at OpenAI, and perhaps the board of directors (if legal authorities have any influence post-AGI). This would be a massive power gain for a small subset of people. If DeepMind makes AGI I assume the money would go to investors, which would mean it would be distributed to all of the Google shareholders. But if OpenAI makes AGI, the money will go to the leadership of OpenAI, on paper to fulfill the mission of OpenAI. On the plus side, I expect that this subset is much more like the people reading this post than most other AGI competitors would be. (The Chinese government, for example). I know some people at OpenAI, and my hunch is that the people there are very smart and pretty altruistic. It might well be about the best we could expect from a tech company. And, to be clear, it’s probably incredibly unlikely that OpenAI will actually create AGI, and even more unlikely they will do so with a decisive edge over competitors. But, I'm sort of surprised so few other people seem at least a bit concerned and curious about the proposal? My impression is that most press outlets haven't thought much at all about what AGI would actually mean, and most companies and governments just assume that OpenAI is dramatically overconfident in themselves.  ---------------------------------------- (Aside on the details of Step 5) I would love more information on Step 5, but I don’t blame OpenAI for not providing it. * Any precise description of how a nonprofit would spend “a large portion of the entire economy” would upset a bunch of powerful people. * Arguably, OpenAI doesn’t really need to figure out Step 5 unless their odds of actually having a decisive AGI advantage seem more plausible. * I assume it’s really hard to actually put together any reasonable plan now for Step 5.  My guess is that we really could use some great nonprofit and academic work to help outline what a positive and globally acceptable (wouldn’t upset any group too much if they were to understand it) Step 5 would look like. There’s been previous academic work on a “windfall clause”[5] (their 100x cap would basically count), having better work on Step 5 seems very obvious. [1] https://openai.com/blog/openai-lp/ [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19360709 [3] https://openai.com/charter/ [4] This was titled a “decisive strategic advantage” in the book Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom [5] https://www.effectivealtruism.org/articles/cullen-okeefe-the-windfall-clause-sharing-the-benefits-of-advanced-ai/ ---------------------------------------- Also, see: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/17/openais-altman-ai-will-make-wealth-to-pay-all-adults-13500-a-year.html Artificial intelligence will create so much wealth that every adult in the United States could be paid $13,500 per year from its windfall as soon as 10 years from now. https://www.techtimes.com/articles/258148/20210318/openai-give-13-500-american-adult-anually-sam-altman-world.htm https://moores.samaltman.com/ https://www.reddit.com/r/artificial/comments/m7cpyn/openais_sam_altman_artificial_intelligence_will/
Social Change Lab has two exciting opportunities for people passionate about social movements, animal advocacy and research to join our team! Director (Maternity Cover) We are looking for a strategic leader to join our team as interim Director. This role will be maternity cover for our current Director (me!) and will be a 12-month contract from July 2024. As Director, you would lead our small team in delivering cutting-edge research on the outcomes and strategies of the animal advocacy and climate movements and ensuring widespread communication of this work to key stakeholders. Research and Communications Officer We also have a potential opportunity for a Research and Communications Officer to join our team for 12 months. Please note this role is dependent on how hiring for our interim Director goes, as we will likely only hire one of these two roles. Please see our Careers page for the full details of both roles and how to apply. If you have any questions about either role, please reach out to Mabli at mabli@socialchangelab.org
[GIF] A feature I'd love on the forum: while posts are read back to you, the part of the text that is being read is highlighted. This exists on Naturalreaders.com and would love to see it here (great for people who have wandering minds like me)  
A periodic reminder that you can just email politicians and then meet them (see screenshot below).

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I’m Emma from the Communications team at the Centre for Effective Altruism (CEA). I want to flag a few media items related to EA that have come out recently or will be coming out soon, given they’ll touch on topics—like FTX—that I expect will be of interest to Forum readers...

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I think you're missing some important ground in between "reflection process" and "PR exercise".

I can't speak for EV or other people then on the boards, but from my perspective the purpose of the legal investigation was primarily about helping to facilitate justified trust. Sam had by many been seen as a trusted EA leader, and had previously been on the board of CEA US. It seemed it wouldn't be unreasonable if people in EA (or even within EV) started worrying that leadership were covering things up. Having an external investigation was, although not a cheap... (read more)

1
trevor1
6h
If EA currently 1. is in the middle of a Dark Forest (e.g. news outlets systematically following emergent consumer interest in criticizing EA and everything it stands for) 2. perceives themselves as currently being in the middle of a dark forest or at risk of already being in a dark forest (which might be hard to evaluate e.g. due to the dynamics described in Social Dark Matter)  3. expects to enter a dark forest at some point in the near future (or the world around them to turn into a dark forest e.g. if China invades Taiwan and a wide variety of norms go out the window) then I imagine that it would be pretty difficult to design institutional constraints that are resilient to observation and exploitation by a wide variety of possible adversaries, and balancing those same institutional constraints to simultaneously be visible and credible/satisfying to a wide variety of observers?
1
trevor1
6h
Ah, my bad, I did a ctrl + f for "sam"! Glad that it was nothing.
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This post was partly inspired by, and shares some themes with, this Joe Carlsmith post. My post (unsurprisingly) expresses fewer concepts with less clarity and resonance, but is hopefully of some value regardless.

Content warning: description of animal death.

I live in a ...

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My prior would be that unless you check extremely frequently, this sounds like a lot of suffering. But not sure about the other options.

1
Tiresias
16h
This post was moving, thank you for writing it. I have dealt with a similar situation, and found it impossible. I've dealt with that impossibility by trying to justify what I've done, and absolve myself. Your post is forthright: you killed the moths. We can move on from it, but we don't need to rationalize it.
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Tl;dr: One of the biggest problems facing any kind of collective action today is the fracturing of the information landscape. I propose a collective, issue-agnostic observatory with a mix of algorithmic and human moderation for the purposes of aggregating information, separate from advocacy (i.e. "what is happening", not "what should happen").

Introduction

There is a crisis of information happening right now. 500 hours of video are uploaded to Youtube every minute. Extremely rapid news cycles, empathy fatigue, the emergence of a theorised and observed polycrisis, and the general breakdown of traditional media institutions in favour of algorithms designed to keep you on-platform for as long as possible means that we receive more data than we have ever before, but are consequently more easily overwhelmed than ever before. The pace of research output has increased drastically while the pace of...

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tldr;

  • Expected value theory misrepresents ruin games and obscures the dynamics of repetitions in a multiplicative environment.
  • The ergodicity framework provides a better perspective on such problems as it takes these dynamics into account.
  • Incorporating the ergodicity framework into decision-making can help prevent the EA movement from inadvertently increasing existential risks by rejecting high expected value but multiplicatively risky interventions that could lead to catastrophic outcomes.

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Effective Altruism (EA) has embraced longtermism as one of its guiding principles. In What we owe the future, MacAskill lays out the foundational principles of longtermism, urging us to expand our ethical considerations to include the well-being and prospects of future generations.

Thinking in Bets

...
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Say, hypothetically, you have a coworker you work well with, but get in heated political arguments with as well. This only happens maybe once a quarter, so they rarely even register as hiccups in your working relationship.

Say, now, that during one of these arguments you recognize a cognitive bias in the coworker's argumentation. The likelihood is high that they are falling into the bias in other contexts (you might argue that it seems more likely that they can clearly compartmentalize and only display thoughts which show evidence of the bias when they are heated - so, say for the sake of the argument that you can now remember an obvious example from daily work where you have seen them lean on the bias).

Here's my dilemma: since you now have evidence they are employing a cognitive bias, do you have a moral (or even, team-based or business) obligation to point out the bias to them? If yes: ...

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TLDR: If you're an EA-minded animal funder donating $200K/year or more, we'd love to connect with you about several exciting initiatives that AIM is launching over the next several months.

AIM (formerly Charity Entrepreneurship) has a history of incubating and supporting...

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Hi, I am Charity Entrepreneurship (CE, now AIM) Director of Research. I wanted to quickly respond to this point.

– – 

Quality of our reports

I would like to push back a bit on Joey's response here. I agree that our research is quicker scrappier and goes into less depth than other orgs, but I am not convinced that our reports have more errors or worse reasoning that reports of other organisations (thinking of non-peer reviewed global health and animal welfare organisations like GiveWell, OpenPhil, Animal Charity Evaluators, Rethink Priorities, Founders Pl... (read more)

6
Elizabeth
10h
Most of these are just "people in space knew this wouldn't work". Could you share more specific criticisms? As Aidan said, the biggest successes come from projects no one else would do, so without more information that seems like a very weak criticism. 

This post summarizes "Against the Singularity Hypothesis," a Global Priorities Institute Working Paper by David Thorstad. This post is part of my sequence of GPI Working Paper summaries. For more, Thorstad’s blog, Reflective Altruism, has a three...

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2
David Thorstad
13h
Here's a gentle introduction to the kinds of worries people have (https://spectrum.ieee.org/power-problems-might-drive-chip-specialization). Of the cited references "the chips are down for moore's law" is probably best on this issue, but a little longer/harder. There's plenty of literature on problems with heat dissipation if you search the academic literature. I can dig up references on energy if you want, but with Sam Altman saying we need a fundamental energy revolution even to get to AGI, is there really much controversy over the idea that we'll need a lot of energy to get to superintelligence? 
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David Thorstad
14h
Ah - that comes from the discontinuity claim. If you have accelerating growth that isn't sustained for very long, you get something like population growth from 1800-2000, where the end result is impressive but hardly a discontinuity comparable to crossing the event horizon of a black hole.  (The only way to go around the assumption of sustained growth would be to post one or a few discontinuous leaps towards superintelligence. But that's harder to defend, and it abandons what was classically taken to ground the singularity hypothesis, namely the appeal to recursive self-improvement). 

As you write: 

The result will be a singularity, understood as a fundamental discontinuity in human history beyond which our fate depends largely on how we interact with artificial agents

The discontinuity is a result of humans no longer being the smartest agents in the world, and no longer being in control of our own fate. After this point, we've entered an event horizon where the output is almost entirely unforeseeable. 

If you have accelerating growth that isn't sustained for very long, you get something like population growth from 1800-2000

If, a... (read more)

Identity

In theory of mind, the question of how to define an "individual" is complicated. If you're not familiar with this area of philosophy, see Wait But Why's introduction.

I think most people in EA circles subscribe to the computational theory of mind, which means that...

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If you don't care about where or when duplicate experiences exist, only their number, then not caring about duplicates at all gives you a fanatical wager against the universe having infinitely many moral patients, e.g. by being infinitely large spatially, going on forever in time, having infinitely many pocket universes.

It would also give you a wager against the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, because there will be copies of you having identical experiences in (at least slightly) already physically distinct branches.

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MichaelStJules
3h
Also, I'd guess most people who value diversity of experience mean that only for positive experiences. I doubt most would mean repeated bad experiences aren't as bad as diverse bad experiences, all else equal.
4
Arepo
3h
This. I'm imagine some Abrodolph Lincoler-esque character - Abronard Willter maybe - putting me in a brazen bull and cooing 'Don't worry, this will all be over soon. I'm going to create 10billion more of you also on a rack, and the fact that I continue to torture you personally will barely matter.'